From dependency to diversity: a strategic scenario analysis on reducing Europe’s soy import dependency by 2035

This report makes the case for treating Europe's dependence on imported soy as a strategic vulnerability — on a par with those in energy and defence — and presents a scenario analysis of how protein diversification can help to improve EU food security and affordability. Using soy as a leading case study, where the EU sources 91% of the soy protein it uses from just three countries, it models four complementary strategies spanning the full value chain from farming to consumption and tests combinations against a common target: a 20% reduction in soy imports by 2035.

Drawing on quantitative modelling, qualitative analysis and expert reviews, it maps the conditions under which that target is achievable and the policy levers required. It translates its findings into concrete recommendations for the EU's Comprehensive Protein Plan, the post-2027 CAP, CMO, the Multi-Annual Framework discussion, Livestock Strategy, Biotech Acts and Public Procurement Directive. 

By modelling four distinct pathways and comparing them across feasibility, land use, and environmental, social and economic impacts, the analysis shows that only the balanced approach — leveraging synergies of policy effort across domestic protein crop production, circular feedstock use, domestic innovative protein production and consumption diversification simultaneously — is both practically achievable and widely beneficial.