From dependency to diversity: a strategic scenario analysis on reducing Europe’s soy import dependency by 2035

Europe's dependence on imported soy is one of the most acute and underacknowledged vulnerabilities in its food system. Drawing on quantitative modelling, qualitative analysis and expert reviews from researchers and policymakers, this report quantifies how four complementary protein diversification strategies could reduce EU soy imports by 20% by 2035 — and shows why only the balanced approach delivers, taking into account feasibility, wider food system impacts and Member State complementarity . It translates these findings into concrete recommendations across key EU policy files, including the EU's Comprehensive Protein Plan, post-2027 CAP, CMO, European Competitiveness Fund, and Public Procurement Directive.